On April 22–23, 2026, the 24th International BLACK SEA GRAIN Conference was held in Kyiv. KYIV-2026 with a focus on UA ​​Agro Restart: Strategies for the Future 2026–2030, which brought together leading participants in the agricultural sector, experts, representatives of various business sectors, government authorities and industry associations. The event discussed issues related to the transformation of Ukraine’s agribusiness and the formation of its new architecture by 2030, long-term development strategies and synergies between different industries.

Considerable attention was paid to the investment attractiveness of the sector, modern economic forecasts and the role of business leaders in changing the economic landscape. Separately, approaches to creating added value in premium agri-food exports, the issue of energy independence as a factor of competitiveness, as well as the prospects of the Black Sea-Danube region in the context of global challenges, in particular, harvest and export forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year, were discussed. An important block was the topic of demand, international trade and competition in world markets in the struggle for their redistribution.

The speakers shared their experience in implementing investment projects, risk management and attracting financing, and also presented examples of both intensive and extensive development of enterprises.

In the 2025/26 season, grain prices are expected to rise against the backdrop of reduced production in some regions of the world and crop problems, in particular in the USA and the Southern Hemisphere. At the same time, competition in export markets is intensifying, which affects the redistribution of shares between suppliers. Ukraine is demonstrating an increase in wheat exports despite a slight decrease in the harvest, while Russia and Romania are reducing volumes.

A change in the demand structure is noted separately, in particular, the growing role of the USA and Brazil in the EU corn market, which increases competition for Ukrainian exporters.

Forecasts for 2026/27 indicate the continued high volatility in the world grain market under the influence of global economic and geopolitical instability, significant world grain reserves, risks of shortages of certain resources, as well as a decrease in the marginality of agrarian business, in particular in exporting countries of the Black Sea region.

The grain market is entering a period of increased competition and structural changes, where flexibility, logistics efficiency and adaptation to new global conditions are key success factors. A gradual shift in agricultural production towards oilseeds and the development of regional trade in Ukraine are expected, which is due to their higher margins, stable demand and the possibility of creating added value through processing. Such trends may lead to a partial change in the structure of Ukrainian agricultural exports and an increase in the role of domestic processing and regional sales markets. Thus, in the Black Sea-Danube region, an increase in the production of oilseeds is expected, primarily sunflower, which remains the dominant crop in the crop structure. At the same time, there are mixed trends in soybeans and rapeseed, which is associated with the state policy of individual countries, climatic conditions and market factors. In particular, in a number of EU countries, restrictions and requirements on crop rotation, environmental standards and crop structure are applied, which affects the volumes of growing rapeseed and other crops due to the need to preserve soil fertility.

The geography of exports plays a significant role. Ukraine focuses on the markets of the EU, India, Turkey and the Middle East, while other countries in the region are forming their own trade strategies. At the same time, the EU strives for greater self-sufficiency, which affects import flows.

The price situation in the oilseed market remains relatively stable with potential volatility depending on seasonal factors and global trends. At the same time, the key market drivers are the development of processing, changes in trade flows and competition for sales markets. The role of oilseeds in the agricultural sector in the 2026/27 season is strengthened by increased competition and the influence of external factors: climate risks, geopolitical instability and the need to adapt business to new conditions.

During one panel discussion, special attention was paid to Ukraine’s macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2030 and the impact of key uncertainties on economic and business development, where the war remains the central factor. It is the duration and scenario of its end that will determine the pace of economic recovery, investment activity, and transformation of the business environment.

Economic forecasts for 2026–2030 provide for several development scenarios, depending on the timing of the end of the war. Even under the baseline scenario, recovery will be gradual. At the same time, the Ukrainian economy demonstrates high adaptability to crisis conditions. However, this “immunity to shocks” has its limits — the growth potential is gradually being exhausted.

In addition to domestic challenges, global factors have a significant impact. In particular, fluctuations in energy prices can significantly increase inflationary pressure, increasing business costs and affecting the purchasing power of the population.

Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in other markets, can further complicate the economic situation and change macroeconomic forecasts.

It is emphasized that after the end of the war, businesses will continue to face systemic problems, such as staff shortages, rising costs and the need to adapt to new market conditions. This necessitates a change in business strategies: from focusing on efficiency and profitability to increasing sustainability, diversifying logistics and energy supply.

Ukraine’s economic future through 2030 depends on a complex of factors, from the duration of the war to the global economic climate. The key conditions for recovery will be attracting investment, structural reforms, and the ability of businesses to adapt to new realities. The Ukrainian economy has the potential for growth, but its realization will require time, stability, and systemic change.

The BLACK SEA GRAIN. KYIV-2026 conference demonstrated that the Ukrainian agricultural sector is entering a period of profound transformation, where adaptability, innovation and integration into global markets are becoming key factors for development. Increased competition, changing demand structures and the growing role of oilseeds are shaping a new agribusiness model focused on added value and efficiency.

At the same time, macroeconomic uncertainty caused by the war and global risks will determine the pace of economic recovery and investment activity in the coming years. In these conditions, business success will depend on the ability to quickly adapt to changes, diversify risks and implement long-term development strategies.

In general, according to the results of the discussions and speeches of the conference participants, the future of the agricultural sector and the economy of Ukraine until 2030 is associated with the need for structural changes, attracting investments, and increasing competitiveness in global markets.

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